Some Analysis of Israel's Elections

Israel held their National Elections on Tuesday and the results are very interesting with Kadima (the centrist party) holding a one seat edge over Likud (the conservative party). Here is an analysis according to the Haaretz Editorial Board:
"If Netanyahu prefers to cling to ideological purism and fulfill his campaign promises to oppose any territorial withdrawal or evacuation of settlements, he needs to bring the far-right and religious factions into his government. He would thereby merit the praise bestowed by his new partner in the leadership, Benny Begin, as someone who has "changed" and "returned to the Likud's roots.""

However, such a coalition would come with a threefold cost: It would face heavy international pressure to resume the peace process and stop settlement construction, it would bloat the budget with financing for the ultra-Orthodox parties' demands, and it would suffer from internal tensions between Lieberman and Shas. The second alternative, which involves bringing Kadima and perhaps even Labor into the government, would deprive Netanyahu of ideological zeal and make it hard for him to implement the economic reforms he promised. But he would thereby greatly reduce the extortionary power of Lieberman and the religious parties, and free himself of reliance on the extremists of the National Union. Such a government would reduce international pressure on Israel a little. Moreover, it would be able to conduct a more responsible fiscal policy at a time of recession, and perhaps even advance interim agreements with the Palestinians and Syria.

Netanyahu would have to contend with pressures from within his party, but he would enjoy some room to maneuver among his coalition partners. During the campaign, Netanyahu said that the worst mistake of his previous term was his decision to form a rightist government rather than a coalition with Labor. He surely remembers that the right-wing factions were the ones that brought his government down after he signed the Wye River Memorandum with Yasser Arafat. Now, he once again faces the choice between an ideological government centered around opposition to territorial withdrawals and a government that would be more attentive to the international community. Neither would be Netanyahu's dream government. But his choice of coalition partners will tell us how he intends to lead Israel in the coming years.

We will be in Jerusalem when the coalition attempts will be in full swing. Will Netanyahu partner with Livni to create a right-centrist government; or will it be a full tilt to the radical right? Only time will tell, but it is our hope and prayer that whatever the solution, a peace process will be on the agenda.